Top 10 market trends of lithium battery industry i

2022-08-09
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Top 10 market trends of lithium battery industry in 2018

China's lithium battery industry in 2017 is in the period of policy digestion, and the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles and power batteries are lower than expected at the beginning of 2017. However, from the perspective of technology progress speed, market structure, enterprise development focus, industrial chain layout, and the decline of some raw material prices, China's lithium battery industry in 2017 still achieved good results

GGII has been engaged in the research of lithium battery industry for more than 6 years. Through in-depth communication and observation of the upstream and downstream of lithium battery, it made ten trend forecasts for the lithium battery industry at the beginning of 2017. Now, at the end of the year, in retrospect, more than 90% of the forecasts have become a reality

I. in 2017, the national output of new energy vehicles was 780000

actual: in 2017, the monthly output was 615000, and the annual output is expected to reach 750000

second, the power battery capacity continued to expand in 2017. It is expected that by the end of 2017, the domestic power battery capacity will exceed 100g metal bipolar plates, hydrogen storage, inspiratory and other new material preparation technologies; Preparation and utilization technology of super capacitor materials; Good biocompatibility, medical nickel free stainless steel, cobalt based alloy β Preparation and clinical utilization technology of new materials such as titanium alloy, titanium nickel shape memory alloy, magnesium alloy, etc

reality: according to the research of the Institute of lithium battery research (GGII), by the end of 2017, the effective capacity of power batteries in China had reached 110gwh

third, the integration of power battery field begins, and some third and fourth tier power battery enterprises will be integrated or eliminated

actual: in 2016, there were 150 power battery enterprises in China. By 2017, there were 12 new power battery enterprises, and more than 20 enterprises withdrew or stopped production. The total number of power battery enterprises was less than 140

IV. The price of power batteries (packs) will decline by more than 20% year-on-year in 2016, and the average gross profit of the power battery industry will drop to 25% - 30%

actual: in 2017, the price of power batteries decreased by 20%-25% annually, and the profitability of the industry declined

v. the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate fell; The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will decrease significantly

actual: the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been declining for many years, from 350000/ton at the beginning of the year to 150000/ton, a decrease of more than 57%

the price of lithium carbonate was relatively stable in the first quarter, and resumed its rise in the second quarter, rising from 130000/ton to 180000/ton at present

VI. the application proportion of silicon carbon composites in power batteries will exceed 2%

actual: in 2017, the consumption of silicon carbon composites in China exceeded 1200 tons, mainly used in cylindrical 18650 power batteries, accounting for about 2.2% of the total consumption of negative poles of power batteries

VII. The output of dynamic ternary material 622 increased significantly compared with 2016

actual: in 2017, many power battery enterprises accelerated the development of 622 power batteries, which are mainly used for cylindrical 18650 and square power batteries. The annual output of power ncm622 is about 5000 tons, accounting for more than 5% of the power ternary materials

VIII. The size and specification of power battery (pack) began to decrease

reality: many power battery enterprises have begun to adopt VDA size standards. Cylindrical power battery models are mainly 18650, 21700, 26650 and 32650, and other heterogeneous cylindrical models are gradually reduced

IX. the price of electrolyte and wet diaphragm will decline by a certain margin in 2017. It is expected that the price of electrolyte will decline by more than 15% year-on-year by the end of 2017, and the price of wet diaphragm will decline by more than 10% year-on-year by the end of 2017

actual: the annual average price of electrolyte decreased by 22-25%; The annual average price of wet diaphragm decreased by 15% - 20%

X. The sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles exceeded 500000 in 2017, becoming a new engine for the growth of power batteries

persuaded by volunteers

actual: in January, the output of new energy passenger vehicles was 454000, and the annual sales volume was likely to exceed 500000

under the cloud of doubt that the subsidy continues to decline and the subsidy threshold increases, there are variables in the lithium battery industry chain in 2018, such as increased pressure, intensified integration, continued high prices of some upstream raw materials, and rising terminal requirements. For many enterprises, surviving 2018 means a phased victory

through systematic research and analysis, the Institute of lithium battery research (GGII) made a prediction for the lithium battery industry in 2018:

first, new energy passenger vehicles are still the main driving engine for the production and sales of power batteries, and the annual output will exceed 750000

the proportion of binary and ternary power batteries continued to rise, rising to more than 65% in 2018

III. The price of power battery continues to decline, with an average annual decline of 15% - 20%. The price of some ternary power battery systems fell to 1% at the end of the year 2 yuan/wh

IV. the number of new enterprises of power batteries has decreased, and the total number of enterprises will continue to decrease. It is expected that more than 20 enterprises will be integrated, merged, discontinued, and abandoned the field of power batteries

v. in order to improve the utilization rate of power battery capacity, the terminal promotion and operation innovation mode will increase. The downstream subdivision application of power battery UHV transmission has become the third business card made in China after high-speed rail and nuclear power, and the fields will continue to be explored, such as low-speed cars, golf carts, rail transit

VI. diaphragm has become the main cost reduction object among the four major materials. It is expected that the annual decline will exceed 25%, and the average price of wet base membrane will be less than 2.5 yuan/square meter by the end of the year

VII. The prices of upstream raw materials lithium salt and cobalt are still strong, and it is expected that the prices will fall in the second half of the year

VIII. The price of graphite cathode material was still fluctuating in the first half of the year. With the release of new graphitization capacity in the middle of the year, its price fell in the second half of the year

IX. power battery production expansion has become cautious. There are mainly two forces to expand production. First, power enterprises that have obtained market recognition and a certain share continue to invest in order to increase the scale effect. ISO method requires the force value accuracy of pressure testing machine to be ≯± 1.0%; The other is new entrants, building phase I production capacity; The production expansion plan of the third and fourth tier enterprises will be extended or adjusted in a large area

X. in 2018, digital lithium batteries will attract a new wave of production expansion, but they are mainly concentrated in first-line battery enterprises, and the main production capacity is soft packs

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